White House officials confirmed energy was on the agenda before Donald Trump's sit-down with Xi Jinping in Beijing. They didn't say how high. After the two leaders met for two hours and fifteen minutes on Thursday, we got the picture. Crude oil. Liquefied natural gas (LNG). Chips. Boeing jets. U.S. soybeans. Biofuels never came up.
That gap is the story for our industry.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that "they're going to be buying millions of dollars of soybeans." He later told Fox News' Sean Hannity that Xi had committed to buying more soybeans, oil, LNG, and 200 Boeing 737 jets. Soybeans are the closest our chain gets to a mention. And only at one remove. Soybean oil is the largest single feedstock for U.S. renewable diesel (RD), but the deal Trump described was for raw beans. Not oil. Not the biofuel made from it.
Renewable diesel, biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and the used cooking oil that feeds them never made either side's pitch. Even on the oil and gas side, expectations were modest. "The ground isn't ripe for oil and gas deals," trade analyst Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute told Axios, noting that China is wary of becoming dependent on a single foreign supplier and that "there are plenty of suitors for U.S. oil and LNG today."
China's energy export story moved separately. Solar panels. Batteries. EVs. Beijing's imports of U.S. LNG and crude have slipped in recent years, with a partial offset on the refined-petroleum side. None of that touches our feedstock.
Why it matters for us.
A conversation about U.S. energy that names soybeans and skips biofuels tells us where the leverage actually sits. UCO pricing, Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values, and where loads land next month are not being shaped in Beijing summit rooms. They're being shaped by EPA, CARB, the Treasury's 45Z guidance, and the call sheet of every domestic processor hunting feedstock this quarter.
Collectors and haulers can stay focused on gate prices without bracing for a China shock. Traders and brokers should keep one eye on the soybean line. If Trump's claim turns into real bushels, soybean oil tightens or loosens at the margin, and UCO follows. Processors chasing RD and SAF margins should watch domestic supply and the next RVO. The Beijing meeting doesn't change their math.
